Ukraine’s Sovereignty Prospects Dim in 2024
A candid assessment of the war, Part 1
The recent stream of negative news around the Ukraine-Russia conflict has started a flood of dire predictions. The general prognosis for Ukraine, Europe, and the West has turned rather negative, and yet it still does not capture the full scope of coming challenges. Let me explain why. First let me say that my baseline assessment is contingent upon the U.S. providing Ukraine security assistance and financial support through 2024. Absent U.S. support, the outlook for Ukraine turns from critical to catastrophic, as no single country or combination of countries can match America’s security assistance or fill the subsequent financial vacuum.
Out of all the troubling data points that I have seen coming from the conflict in recent months, one has stood out to me as particularly disquieting. It isn’t the lack of major progress in liberating Russian-occupied territory in the south and east, nor the loss of equipment. It’s not the fact that Russia once again o…
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Why It Matters to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.