Too Little, Too Late?

On the Lifting of Restrictions for ATACMS

The Biden administration recently authorized the Ukrainian military to use American-supplied ATACMS missiles to strike targets in Russian Federation territory. This development comes as Russian and North Korean forces mount increasingly large attacks on Ukrainian positions in Kursk Oblast and as the incoming Trump administration signals its intention to curtail support for Ukraine and focus instead on ill-advised peace discussions. Additionally, the White House has reportedly lifted restrictions that prevented American military contractors and mechanics from working within Ukraine. While I support these decisions, I can’t help but feel frustrated with this administration’s feckless approach to Ukrainian aid.

Where was this initiative a year ago?

Ukraine has been resisting Russia’s invasion for over 1,000 days. While the United States and its European allies were quick to mobilize political and material support in the opening months of the conflict, Washington has failed to maintain consistency in delivering security aid and has struggled to cultivate a sense of unity among its allies towards the Ukrainian cause. Biden’s national security team believed that Russia could be “contained” by taking an incremental approach toward the delivery of weapons and military aid to Ukraine. The result of this “incrementalist” approach is that Abrams tanks arrived weeks after the conclusion of the 2023 counteroffensive and Ukrainian F-16s first took flight two and a half years into the war.

Again, does anyone in Washington want Ukraine to win this war? None of this looks like winning the war, and the incoming admin is certainly content with Ukraine losing it.

The lifting of restrictions for striking targets in Russia with ATACMS will allow Ukraine to inflict serious damage against Russian and North Korean forces near Kursk Oblast. This will also allow Kyiv to strike staging areas and targets of strategic importance in Southern Russia and within the territories bordering Ukraine. If Ukraine had the element of surprise, ammunition depots and fleets of aircraft could have been eliminated before Russia had the opportunity to adapt.

However, Moscow has now had months to relocate and transfer certain assets out of the ATACMS range. The benefit of this strategic capability has been diminished. The timing of this decision during the closing weeks of the Biden White House means that Ukraine has neither the ability to reshape the battlefield nor the time to establish domestic repair capabilities with American contractors before an incoming Trump admin pushes for a forced peace. While the decision to lift these absurd restrictions is certainly welcome, I worry that it may be a day late and a dollar short.

Adding to this, Vladimir Putin recently announced that Russia is lowering the threshold for deploying nuclear weapons, seemingly in response to the U.S. decision to lift restrictions on Ukrainian long-range strikes as justification. However, this shift more than a direct response; it has been in the works for several months and underscores a strategy of heightened nuclear posturing aimed at exploiting Western hesitation. The timing, coming shortly after Trump’s reelection, also seems calculated to project strength, test the incoming administration's resolve, and illicit another bout of self-deterrence from Trump.