Peace in the Middle East… Maybe

A Big Diplomatic Win for the Biden Admin and Step Towards Peace

According to reports, representatives of Israel and Hamas reached a ceasefire agreement yesterday. While the Israeli government claims that the final details of the agreement are still being ironed out, the ceasefire will include the return of civilian hostages taken by Hamas during the opening days of the conflict and the release of Hamas prisoners captured by the Israeli military. The ceasefire is expected to go into effect on January 19th.

The tragic events of October 7, 2023, resulting in nearly 1,500 Israelis murdered and taken hostage, precipitated a bout of violence resulting in tens of thousands of casualties. Hamas and Iran aimed to weaken Israel, end diplomatic normalization in the Middle East, and sow chaos that Iran and ultimately Russia could exploit for various objectives. This deal, if realized, will close the current chapter of significant violence and a source of major risks for a larger regional war. The conditions of the agreement represent a near-absolute win for Israel and varying degrees of success to the U.S. and its network of allies and partners. The big losers were the terrorist organizations and regimes, including Hamas, Hezbollah, Assad’s Syrian regime, Iran, and Russia. Many problems and unanswered questions remain. Will the ceasefire hold? How long will the Houthis in Yemen hold international commerce hostage? What are Russia and Iran’s next moves to regain influence? Will Syria destabilize into a violent civil war? And the big question: will Iran attempt to build a nuclear weapon, and will Israel and Trump let them? From my perspective, this is unlikely.

Much of the credit goes to Israel. Despite Netanyahu’s aggressive West Bank settlement policies and previous appeasement of Hamas (which set the conditions for Hamas’s successful attack on October 7), he ultimately prosecuted a successful war against Hamas and Hezbollah, stared down Iranian threats to trigger a broader regional war, and adeptly seized opportunities to exploit events like the Assad regime’s toppling to secure Israeli interests. The facts on the ground, military victories, and intelligence feats compelled the weakened terrorist regimes to negotiate. However, negotiations could not have been fruitful without engagement from the United States and President Biden’s diplomatic teams.

The Israel-Hamas war represented one of two great strategic challenges facing the Biden administration (the other being the ongoing war in Ukraine). For nearly two years, the Biden administration grappled with the Iranian-led “Axis of Resistance” on battlefields from the Levant and the Mediterranean coast to Yemen and the Red Sea. With the leadership of Hamas eliminated, Hezbollah’s ranks decimated, countless Iranian-backed proxies and affiliates destroyed, and Russia expelled from Syria with greatly diminished influence in the Middle East, there is no force in the region that can pose a threat to the United States or Israel. From this perspective, Washington and Tel Aviv have achieved an unambiguous victory.

Beyond the military dimensions and the role the U.S. and allies played in securing the air and seas around Israel, the Biden administration played a critical role in the dogged diplomatic campaign to bring the war to an end and maybe, just maybe, open an era of greater peace in the region.

The ceasefire negotiations required cooperation and coordination with third parties and intermediaries across the Middle East. Even with efforts by outside players like Iran and Russia to instigate further conflict and spoil the negotiation process, it was the Biden team that brought the Israel-Hamas war to a close. This agreement, alongside new formats of cooperation in the Indo-Pacific like AUKUS and the Quad, should be seen as examples of the success of the Biden administration’s foreign policy and diplomatic outreach. It’s safe to say that today’s agreement has secured the legacy of the Biden administration’s foreign policy as one of peacemaking and coalition-building.

Time will tell whether or not today’s ceasefire brings lasting peace to the region. There is always the possibility that dissenting elements within Hamas’ leadership continue to agitate against Israel, or that a future overstep by Netanyahu in the West Bank or neighboring countries disturbs the balance of power in the region. If today’s agreement holds, we may see a period of peace and normalization between Israel and its neighbors, particularly with the incoming Lebanese presidential administration and the post-Assad Syrian government. Additionally, the conclusion of the Israel-Hamas conflict may allow the United States to refocus its strategic resources and material support towards other priorities. At minimum, there will be greater bandwidth to divert to Russia and China, although increased security in those regions remains uncertain.