Imperial Overreach: Lessons from Syria’s Chaos

Collateral Damage from Russian and Iranian Imperial Ambitions

Syria’s transformation from a brutal dictatorship under Bashar al-Assad to a fractured state ruled by a confederation of opposition groups marks a turning point in Middle Eastern geopolitics. The region, once a battleground for external powers seeking to expand their influence, now stands as a stark reminder of the dangers of imperial overreach. Russia and Iran, the Assad regime’s chief backers, are reeling from the consequences of their military ambitions. Tehran and Moscow are now overextended and unable to sustain their footholds in Syria.

The fall of the Assad regime has left Syria in a precarious state. A loose confederation of opposition groups has taken its place but their ability to govern remains deeply uncertain. Divided by ideology and lacking a unified vision, these factions may struggle to form a stable government capable of representing Syria’s diverse and heterogeneous society. Compounding this uncertainty is the risk that the power vacuum could give rise to a radical Islamic regime, further destabilizing the region and undermining efforts toward lasting peace.

Iran and Russia assisted Assad’s regime as it teetered towards collapse following the Arab Spring uprisings. They provided financial and material support, enabling Assad to crush and contain opposition forces for years. However, their investments have failed to yield a sustainable outcome. Today, neither country has the resources to salvage Syria’s potential descent into chaos.

Russia’s presence in Syria has dwindled to a token force, focused on air power and force projection into the Mediterranean. Meanwhile, Iran has seen one of its most powerful tools—Hezbollah—decimated in a war with Israel. Both powers are overstretched and caught in conflicts they can no longer afford to sustain.

Iran’s regional ambitions have taken a significant hit. Hezbollah, long considered Tehran’s proxy force in the Levant, has suffered devastating losses in its war with Israel. This setback not only weakens Iran’s regional influence but also limits its ability to project power beyond its borders. Domestically, Iran faces mounting economic pressures exacerbated by international sanctions and the costs of its military adventures. The strain is palpable and has left Tehran less capable of asserting its dominance in the Middle East.

After nearly three years of full-scale war in Ukraine, Russia’s global influence is in steep decline. The Kremlin’s imperial aspirations have overstretched its military and economic capacities. In Syria, Russia’s limited presence underscores its inability to sustain long-term commitments. Meanwhile, closer to home, Moscow faces significant challenges. Moldova continues on its pro-European course, resisting Russian influence. In Georgia, civil protests and government crackdowns threaten the stability of its pro-Russian government. Most critically, Russia’s staying power in Ukraine is uncertain.

While Russia has made some territorial gains in Ukraine, it has come at the cost of sapping national strength. Its military losses—both in manpower and equipment—are staggering and irreparable in the short-term. The Russian economy, groaning under the weight of war and sanctions, risks breaking under the strain by 2025.

The chaos in Syria and the struggles of Russia and Iran offer a cautionary tale of overreach and the limits of power. The incoming Trump administration has an opportunity to help end Russia’s centuries-long imperial ambitions by fully committing to Ukraine’s military success. Supporting Ukraine with the resources and weaponry necessary to achieve victory on the battlefield would deal a decisive blow to Russian expansionism and set a precedent that aggression will not go unpunished. By helping Ukraine secure its sovereignty and territorial integrity, the United States can ensure the collapse of Russia’s imperial aspirations, the re-stabilization of European security, and the protection of the global order. The stakes are high but with bold action, lasting peace and security are within reach.